Ethereum is following the 2016 pattern: Will Q4 bring a price decline for ETH?
Ethereum may face a red Q4 due to historical patterns and market conditions.
Ethereum is repeating the 2016 pattern.
- Geopolitical tensions are impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum [ETH] continues to present mixed signals as the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year begins. Historically, a bullish close in September has often led to positive market movements, but it seems Ethereum is following a different path.
ETH closed in the green in September, closely following its 2016 pattern, which could indicate a potential red Q4. If this pattern persists, the fourth quarter may witness a decline, followed by a recovery in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.
The price dynamics of Ethereum are intriguing, and its historical performance is worth monitoring to see if it deviates from previous trends.
Source: X
Whales Taking Profits and Becoming Restless
The current price behavior of Ethereum reflects its 2016 pattern, indicating a potential bearish turn in the fourth quarter. This expectation is reinforced by large investors or “whales” who are liquidating their ETH to secure profits.
Recently, a whale transferred 29,480 Ethereum to Coinbase, realizing a profit of over $2 million.
Source: Onchain Lens
This type of behavior often indicates that major players anticipate a downturn, increasing the likelihood of a red Q4 for Ethereum. These actions create additional pressure on ETH prices, prompting investors to closely monitor a potential decline.
ETH ETF Flows and Market Movements
Ethereum has also experienced significant outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), contributing to a cautious outlook. Since September 3, the market has seen the highest net outflows for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum ETFs.
ETH ETFs recorded outflows of $48.6 million, with major players like Grayscale and Fidelity witnessing large withdrawals. While some smaller ETFs saw inflows, it was not enough to offset the broader trend.
Source: SpotOnChain
This indicates that institutional investors may be positioning themselves in anticipation of a potential price decline for Ethereum in the fourth quarter, in line with broader market sentiment.
Geopolitical Tensions Impact Prices
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have also affected the cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum. Both BTC and ETH faced sharp declines, with ETH dropping below $2,500.
In just the last 24 hours, 155,000 accounts were liquidated, totaling $533 million, with $451 million related to long orders.
These liquidations, particularly in ETH, further add to the evidence that Ethereum may follow its 2016 pattern of a red Q4.
Source: Coinglass
A combination of whale behavior, ETF outflows, and geopolitical tensions suggests that Ethereum may face challenges in the fourth quarter.
While ETH’s price has shown resilience, historical patterns and current market conditions indicate that it might experience a decline before a potential recovery in early 2025.
Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor these developments, as any deviation from the pattern could create risks and opportunities for ETH in the coming months.
